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Extended Probabilistic Climatology (EPC)

The extended probabilistic climatology (EPC) is a novel concept to create a benchmark forecast for precipitation. To understand the EPC lets define the probabilistic climatology first: A probabilistic climatology for a particular day consists of all observations from the past years on that particular day. The extended probabilistic climatology extends this idea by including a +/- 5 window around the considered day for all the past years.

To compute the EPC for a specific day and location the freely available GPM IMERG dataset* is used.

To create a visualization of the EPC go to EPC World, specify a date, select your location of interest on the map and push the button "Compute EPC". Under EPC City one can select a location from a list of predefined Cities. In addition, median and upper and lower quantile values for every date can be displayed in the form of a heat map.

*Huffman, G.J., E.F. Stocker, D.T. Bolvin, E.J. Nelkin, Jackson Tan (2019), GPM IMERG Final Precipitation L3 1 day 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree V06, Edited by Andrey Savtchenko, Greenbelt, MD, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), Accessed: 2019-12-09